The Pen Just Got Bigger

The Big Z.  A book, written by Pedro Miranda, was even made about the Cubs' most troublesome pitcher.  Supposedly an ace, he lost that role probably two years ago, yet he keeps starting Opening Days out of respect.  Carlos Zambrano was relegated to the bullpen in a move I never thought I'd see.  The Cubs have a reputation for sticking with bad players through struggles and not being aggressive enough on the hook, so this is a good sign.  For the first time since 2002, the Cubs will look at a Zambrano-less rotation.  The last time Zambrano pitched from the pen was also 2002.  Despite the fact that this photo is from 2009, these types of incidents have frequented Zambrano's career the last five years or so.  Lou Piniella and the Cubs drew a lot of criticism for waiting too long to take Alfonso Soriano out the leadoff hole, so this is a move that sends a message: The Cubs are cracking down on struggling players.  No job is safe if they're not producing.

The new rotation looks odd with Dempster, Lilly, Wells, Silva, and Gorzelanny.  Zambrano will become a setup man and I hope replace John Grabow for the moment.  Grabow can't pitch.  That's all I have to say about him right now.  Zambrano will get straightened out in the bullpen, becoming available Friday and I predict he will be back in the rotation in three weeks.  The biggest issue here is my fantasy team.  The market for setup men on fantasy baseball is very, very small which means they better be playing half the games or striking out 10/9 IP.  Since Zambrano does neither, there is no trade interest out there for the guy except that he could come back and start in a few weeks.  I sympathize for fellow Zambrano owners.  Go Cubs!

Welcome to the Doghouse

John Grabow and Esmailin Caridad are the first to enter my doghouse on the Cubs.  The Cubs returned from their six game road trip to begin the season with a 2-4 record, although that mark should be 5-1.  On Wednesday in Atlanta, Grabow prevented the Cubs from getting their first win by allowing a two-run, go-ahead homer to Chipper Jones.  Just two nights later Drew Stubbs destroyed Caridad's offering into center field to blow the 3-1 lead.  Another two nights and another blown effort by the Cubs.  This time it was Grabow again, with the help of Alfonso Soriano.  In the 7th with Tom Gorzelanny still pitching, Soriano messed up a routine catch like no one else could and this resulted in the bases loaded with one out.  Miguel Cairo then singled off Sean Marshall to drive in a run, but the tied score didn't last long.  An inning later in the 8th, John Grabow loaded the bases, and Esmailin Caridad walked Ramon Hernandez to walk in a run.  After a Jonny Gomes sac fly, the Cubs were left staring at the scoreboard in disbelief for the third time in five games.

I don't see what has happened with Grabow and Caridad.  I really hope this is something they get over, but the Cubs offense wasn't playing too well on the road trip and the starters were just doing a fantastic job (exception: Carlos Zambrano).  For any of that to matter, the bullpen needs to do their job even if they don't get the big thanks for it.  As we saw, the Cubs were unable to do that.  I haven't seen a stretch like that for the Cubs ever, where the bullpen blows it three out of five nights in the 7th or later.  Hopefully I won't see that again.

I had confidence in this bullpen heading into the season.  Actually, I still do.  This was just a wake up call, and it should stay that way to all Cub fans.  The bullpen is young, and young instability is not really a problem the Cubs have had to deal with in the last few years.  Thankfully, we are young now but we need to be able to hand the ball to someone who can get outs.  This is not easy with young guys.  One night, Caridad might be firing fastballs past everyone, and the next night he's serving up meat balls obliterated all around the park.  Marmol could strike out the side, or he could walk the bases loaded and force in runs.  The main idea with all of this is that not too much should be expected from the bullpen, although there is plenty of upside.

Grady Sizemore? Tyler Colvin?

Tyler Colvin is my middle name.  No, seriously check my facebook page (for a limited time only).  My question is: How do the Cubs, notorious the last decade or so for spending the big bucks on busts and the like and investing in the wrong prospects from a dismal scouting system, end up with a prospect who leads the entire Cactus League in batting average?  I can't answer this question, but I am really glad to have a young talent on the Cubs this year.  For once, we aren't a completely veteran-laded team with a really young bullpen.  John Grabow is the only reliever at 30 or above.  Anyway, Tyler Colvin should be compared to five tool outfielders in the big leagues, and while Grady Sizemore is a stretch, it is a possibility down the road.  Colvin didn't show much power before, but he's beefed up and the Cubs have said he will get 2-3 starts a week in the outfield at any of the three positions.  I think this makes life tough for Kosuke Fukudome, because I think either Xavier Nady or Colvin is going to steal his job.  Colvin is the guy the Cubs have been searching for all these years, and we finally have NO question marks in the outfield for the first time in maybe five years.  Soriano's health is a question mark, you might say, but there is enough talent and depth that we could win without him.  Nady is a step down because he doesn't have much speed and less home runs and all that, but definitely an above average hitter still getting 20 HR.  If Tyler Colvin were to take the spot in left, well, what can I say?  Sit back and watch the guy do his thing.  You won't be disappointed.

Cubs Positional Breakdown: Bullpen

This bullpen was very shaky out of the gate in 2009 when most of the effective relievers on the 2008 squad were replaced, for reasons unknown.  However, the cumulative ERA went down as the season went on, and this tight group looks to become the best bullpen in the division.  With a year of experience under their belts, they start the 2010 season ready to go.

Closer: Carlos Marmol, RHP
Marmol is really a one-of-a-kind pitcher.  He is the definition of unhittable, allowing only a ridiculous 43 hits in 74 innings (or 5.23 H/9, the second-best rating among full season pitchers behind Jonathan Broxton).  However, his problem is definitely the walks and sometimes lack of control.  His slider is one of the best in baseball, but you see too many nights were it is consistently breaking too much into the dirt on every pitch.  This will draw the strikeouts (93 in those 74 innings), but more and more hitters are figuring out to just not swing until they have two strikes on them.  Marmol's walks rose from 41 to 65, causing a few red flags coming into this season for his first full season as closer, although he was perfect in opportunities after taking over for Kevin Gregg last year.

Setup 1: Esmailin Caridad, RHP
A little known reliever out of the Cubs system, Caridad wasn't billed up to be much.  His velocity was good but not excellent, his breaking stuff was good but a little inconsistent, but overall he just seemed like a solid guy who could get outs.  Caridad is already being given a shot at the setup spot after just one season with only 19.1 IP career in the major leagues.  He did hold a handsome 1.40 ERA and struck out 17 in that time, so I can see why the Cubs made this move.  I like this guy, but like all Cub fans, have not seen enough to really give a report yet.  We'll see how he does in his second big trial.

Setup 2: John Grabow, LHP
A crucial left-handed part to the pen is filled by Grabow, who's durable, ground ball style of pitching kept opponents at bay for the last two years with the Pittsburgh Pirates, which have easily been his best years.  In limited action during the second half of 2009, he showed no signs of stopping.  Grabow pitched in 75 games total and doesn't have much of an injury history, so he should be a lock for success out of the Wrigley left-field line.

Middle Relief: Sean Marshall, LHP*
Although he fit the bill better in 2008, Marshall continued to be a consistent, durable presence in 2009.  His ERA rose a bit to 4.32, but cut down on home runs and actually threw one of just three complete games by a Cubs pitcher last year.  Besides that, though, he was inconsistent and not dependable in rotation, which is why after nine starts he was moved back to the bullpen in favor of young Randy Wells.  Although he aims for a spot in the rotation for 2010, I believe he was much better suited in the bullpen.

Middle Relief: Carlos Silva, RHP*
Not much should be expected from the big righty this season, but he could be somewhat effective in the right role.  Silva was a huge disappointment to the Mariners after they gave him an overpaid $48 million contract to be a starter.  Silva's best season has been just 14-8 with the Twins, so it was a bad idea to expect him to be an ace.  Sure enough, here we are in Year 3 of the deal and Silva has been terrible.  We'll see what he can give us in 2010.

Middle Relief (Injury Permitting): Angel Guzman, RHP

Guzman was a pleasant surprise in a bullpen with many question marks the first half of 2009.  Keeping his ERA well below 3 most of the season and finishing at 2.95, he was the sturdy factor that anchored the Cubs and kept them in many games until things got figured out.  He performed exceedingly well during his eventual transition from middle relief to setup, although his work went much unappreciated thanks to 8 blown saves by a certain Gregg.  With Marmol coming in in the 9th now, however, Guzman should be setup to be the best setup man of the division in 2010, unless his injury bug catches back up to him.  He could be out for the season.

Middle Relief: Justin Berg, RHP

Yet another product of the Cubs system, this guy appears to have won a shot at the pen.  Like Caridad, Berg was impressive in his 12 inning debut year.  Berg has the poise of a man beyond his age.  Adjustments will need to be made for both guys as hitters catch up, but the new, surprisingly young Cubs bullpen has all kind of characters in it.  Berg will certainly do better than the old Aaron Heilman of 2009, who I must say good riddance to.  I don't have much on Berg either except for his minor league success, so watch this guy as well.  Watch for him in the 5th, 6th, or 7th innings of ballgames.

Middle Relief: Jeff Gray, RHP
Acquired from Oakland for Aaron Miles and Jake Fox, I really like this guy.  He can turn up the heat on the fastball or fool hitters with great breaking pitches.  He walked only four in 26.2 innings last year which will make the Cubs an even more control-focused team, which they already are.  He is relatively young at 29, yet has a lot of baseball under his belt which is a big key to the bullpen, where we have a few upcoming rookies and some veterans.  Gray will be a nice bridge in between.

Others: Jeff Samardzija*, Justin Berg, Mike Parisi, and Mitch Atkins are the main other candidates.  Samardzija, in case you haven't heard a million times, is a former WR at Notre Dame, but chose baseball instead.  Jeff hasn't brought all of his game from the minors to the majors yet, but this could be the year.  Given a crack at starting two games in 2009, he didn't perform as Cubs coaches would have liked.  I think he deserves a shot over Marshall, Silva, and possibly Gorzelanny for the 5th spot in the rotation, but the depth there is good enough for nice protection.  Berg was brought up for 12 innings in 2009, and although he pitched well, that wasn't a big enough sample to see how he will perform over an extended period of time.  He needs some more seasoning to train his skills.  Parisi was a Rule 5 pick from the Cardinals, which means he must stay on the major league roster for the whole season or else he must be sacrificed back to St. Louis.  I don't know much about this guy, but he will probably be used in the low risk roles that David Patton was used in last year.  Atkins is new to me as well, but pitched to an impressive 17-7 in 28 starts between AA and AAA.

The Pen looks to be in good shape for 2010, although a big hinge here is Guzman's health.  He has been in the organization for over 10 years now, but because of injuries he didn't make an impact over a full season until last year.  Marmol is an interesting choice as closer but needs to watch out for the walks.  Also, there are a few variables like Gorzelanny, Berg, Atkins, Samardzija, and Silva.  How they pitch could decide the Cubs' fate at the end of ballgames.

*in consideration to start also.