Homestand Analysis: New York, Pittsburgh, Houston

Note: technical difficulties have prevented me from posting in the last week.  I apologize for this and guarantee more posts are coming, and soon.  Thank you for being patient.

Record: 3-6
Season Record: 23-31
Games Behind First: Irrelevant at the moment

Well so much for that.  This was supposed to be the point where the Cubs kicked it into gear, hosting three of the worst teams in the National League.  Not only was the homestand bad, it progressively got worse.  The Cubs routed the Mets in two of three in the first series, and their only loss was a wild one that showed plenty of effort from the Cubs.

In one of the weirdest things I have ever seen, Justin Berg came in in relief during that game with two men on and one out and promptly walked the next three batters, forcing in two runs.  Not only did he walk these hitters, he walked them on 12 pitches, meaning he didn't throw a single strike.  After the third walk he was taken out and sent to the minors immediately.

The Cubs were basically shut out in the first two games against the Pirates, not including a ninth inning two-run bomb by Alfonso Soriano that didn't hold much significance.  The Pirates, meanwhile, put up 14 runs between the two games, including a homer parade from former Cub shortstop Ronny Cedeno, first baseman Lyle Overbay, catcher Chris Snyder, and center fielder Andrew McCutchen.  The Cubs won the Sunday matinee 3-2 on a homer from Aramis Ramirez (about time, don'tcha think?) and a pair of sac flies.

The Astros, jealous of their fellow NL Central team the Pirates, decided to jump on the bandwagon and create a homer parade of their own at Wrigley Field, which is just this magical place for opposing power hitters.  I think the media is sticking with the story that the wind blows in during the spring despite the fact that visitors seem to have no trouble homering.  The Astros' homer parade consisted of second baseman Clint Barmes, right fielder Hunter Pence, catcher J.R. Towles (really?), and shorstop Jeff Keppinger.  They cruised to a 12-7 win.

As manager, Mike Quade can't just come to a press conference and blame the entire loss on one player because of the media frenzy and drama that would follow.  Luckily, I am not bound to such restrictions.  Tuesday's loss was almost entirely the fault of Carlos Marmol.  Almost entirely.  As usual, the Cubs left a million runners on base and could have scored plenty more, but Marmol comes in a 3-1 game in the ninth and gives up six.  And here's the one part I just don't understand.

Marmol comes in, blows the lead, and then puts two men on base with a 4-3 Astros lead.  He clearly didn't have good stuff out there that day, and had his morale blown after blowing the lead.  But Mike Quade leaves him out there to pitch to Hunter Pence, who homers off him.  A closer, especially one as emotionally pumped as Marmol, should never be left in a game after blowing a lead and letting the other team go ahead.  A pathetic waste of a game.

The Cubs would lose the next afternoon too, ending the homestand at 3-6.  Weren't they supposed to have their big winning swing on this homestand?  No one on the Cubs actually got the memo.  And not only that, the Cubs, as they have the last two years, looked completely disinterested.  There's no anger here besides that of Carlos Zambrano (stay tuned on that).

I say it all the time; if the Cubs aren't going to beat the bad teams, they'll have to beat the good ones.  Because you can't turn around the season without winning games.  And the Cubs don't seem to be too interested in doing that these days.  That is precisely the most frustrating thing about watching the Cubs.  The Cubs just got swept by the Cardinals, and now head to Cincinnati and Philly.  With all these injuries, underperformers, and losses, this is probably rock bottom for this team.  If it isn't, the Cubs will probably lose 100 games this season.

Cubs Positional Breakdown: Bullpen

This bullpen was very shaky out of the gate in 2009 when most of the effective relievers on the 2008 squad were replaced, for reasons unknown.  However, the cumulative ERA went down as the season went on, and this tight group looks to become the best bullpen in the division.  With a year of experience under their belts, they start the 2010 season ready to go.

Closer: Carlos Marmol, RHP
Marmol is really a one-of-a-kind pitcher.  He is the definition of unhittable, allowing only a ridiculous 43 hits in 74 innings (or 5.23 H/9, the second-best rating among full season pitchers behind Jonathan Broxton).  However, his problem is definitely the walks and sometimes lack of control.  His slider is one of the best in baseball, but you see too many nights were it is consistently breaking too much into the dirt on every pitch.  This will draw the strikeouts (93 in those 74 innings), but more and more hitters are figuring out to just not swing until they have two strikes on them.  Marmol's walks rose from 41 to 65, causing a few red flags coming into this season for his first full season as closer, although he was perfect in opportunities after taking over for Kevin Gregg last year.

Setup 1: Esmailin Caridad, RHP
A little known reliever out of the Cubs system, Caridad wasn't billed up to be much.  His velocity was good but not excellent, his breaking stuff was good but a little inconsistent, but overall he just seemed like a solid guy who could get outs.  Caridad is already being given a shot at the setup spot after just one season with only 19.1 IP career in the major leagues.  He did hold a handsome 1.40 ERA and struck out 17 in that time, so I can see why the Cubs made this move.  I like this guy, but like all Cub fans, have not seen enough to really give a report yet.  We'll see how he does in his second big trial.

Setup 2: John Grabow, LHP
A crucial left-handed part to the pen is filled by Grabow, who's durable, ground ball style of pitching kept opponents at bay for the last two years with the Pittsburgh Pirates, which have easily been his best years.  In limited action during the second half of 2009, he showed no signs of stopping.  Grabow pitched in 75 games total and doesn't have much of an injury history, so he should be a lock for success out of the Wrigley left-field line.

Middle Relief: Sean Marshall, LHP*
Although he fit the bill better in 2008, Marshall continued to be a consistent, durable presence in 2009.  His ERA rose a bit to 4.32, but cut down on home runs and actually threw one of just three complete games by a Cubs pitcher last year.  Besides that, though, he was inconsistent and not dependable in rotation, which is why after nine starts he was moved back to the bullpen in favor of young Randy Wells.  Although he aims for a spot in the rotation for 2010, I believe he was much better suited in the bullpen.

Middle Relief: Carlos Silva, RHP*
Not much should be expected from the big righty this season, but he could be somewhat effective in the right role.  Silva was a huge disappointment to the Mariners after they gave him an overpaid $48 million contract to be a starter.  Silva's best season has been just 14-8 with the Twins, so it was a bad idea to expect him to be an ace.  Sure enough, here we are in Year 3 of the deal and Silva has been terrible.  We'll see what he can give us in 2010.

Middle Relief (Injury Permitting): Angel Guzman, RHP

Guzman was a pleasant surprise in a bullpen with many question marks the first half of 2009.  Keeping his ERA well below 3 most of the season and finishing at 2.95, he was the sturdy factor that anchored the Cubs and kept them in many games until things got figured out.  He performed exceedingly well during his eventual transition from middle relief to setup, although his work went much unappreciated thanks to 8 blown saves by a certain Gregg.  With Marmol coming in in the 9th now, however, Guzman should be setup to be the best setup man of the division in 2010, unless his injury bug catches back up to him.  He could be out for the season.

Middle Relief: Justin Berg, RHP

Yet another product of the Cubs system, this guy appears to have won a shot at the pen.  Like Caridad, Berg was impressive in his 12 inning debut year.  Berg has the poise of a man beyond his age.  Adjustments will need to be made for both guys as hitters catch up, but the new, surprisingly young Cubs bullpen has all kind of characters in it.  Berg will certainly do better than the old Aaron Heilman of 2009, who I must say good riddance to.  I don't have much on Berg either except for his minor league success, so watch this guy as well.  Watch for him in the 5th, 6th, or 7th innings of ballgames.

Middle Relief: Jeff Gray, RHP
Acquired from Oakland for Aaron Miles and Jake Fox, I really like this guy.  He can turn up the heat on the fastball or fool hitters with great breaking pitches.  He walked only four in 26.2 innings last year which will make the Cubs an even more control-focused team, which they already are.  He is relatively young at 29, yet has a lot of baseball under his belt which is a big key to the bullpen, where we have a few upcoming rookies and some veterans.  Gray will be a nice bridge in between.

Others: Jeff Samardzija*, Justin Berg, Mike Parisi, and Mitch Atkins are the main other candidates.  Samardzija, in case you haven't heard a million times, is a former WR at Notre Dame, but chose baseball instead.  Jeff hasn't brought all of his game from the minors to the majors yet, but this could be the year.  Given a crack at starting two games in 2009, he didn't perform as Cubs coaches would have liked.  I think he deserves a shot over Marshall, Silva, and possibly Gorzelanny for the 5th spot in the rotation, but the depth there is good enough for nice protection.  Berg was brought up for 12 innings in 2009, and although he pitched well, that wasn't a big enough sample to see how he will perform over an extended period of time.  He needs some more seasoning to train his skills.  Parisi was a Rule 5 pick from the Cardinals, which means he must stay on the major league roster for the whole season or else he must be sacrificed back to St. Louis.  I don't know much about this guy, but he will probably be used in the low risk roles that David Patton was used in last year.  Atkins is new to me as well, but pitched to an impressive 17-7 in 28 starts between AA and AAA.

The Pen looks to be in good shape for 2010, although a big hinge here is Guzman's health.  He has been in the organization for over 10 years now, but because of injuries he didn't make an impact over a full season until last year.  Marmol is an interesting choice as closer but needs to watch out for the walks.  Also, there are a few variables like Gorzelanny, Berg, Atkins, Samardzija, and Silva.  How they pitch could decide the Cubs' fate at the end of ballgames.

*in consideration to start also.