Three Up, Three Down: Offseason Moves

Joey Votto

With less than five weeks remaining until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training, most of the major offseason moves have already been made.  Most teams have made notable changes and some are even done shopping, content with their roster for the 2012 season.  Others have more work to do.  Today we'll look at three extreme examples of both.  Here I indicate whether I'm bullish or bearish on a certain team.

Cincinnati Reds - BULLISH

Faced with possibly losing Joey Votto in less than two years, the Reds are going all in.  They gave up a lot to get him, but they have a new ace in Mat Latos, acquired from the Padres for Edinson Volquez and three minor leaguers.  That blockbuster trade has highlighted their offseason moves so far but they've also made improvements in the bullpen.  Reds GM Walt Jocketty pulled the trigger on acquiring Sean Marshall from the Cubs for three prospects and, giving them an elite setup man right away.  Francisco Cordero may or not return to the team, but their acquisition of Ryan Madson makes it much more unlikely.  Madson's four-year deal with the Phillies fell through in November and Madson and Scott Boras shocked the baseball world by settling for a measly one-year deal with Cincinnati.  It's for $8.5 million so the Reds are putting in a major investment, but his 32 saves, 2.37 ERA and 3.88 K/BB ratio from 2011 provide indicators that he'll be able to continue his success.  In the 2000s when the Reds were non-contenders for most of the decade, it was because of their lack of pitching to keep up with their bandbox of a ballpark.  With a new ace and revamped bullpen, they'll be strong contenders in 2012, especially considering how the Cardinals are losing Albert Pujols and the Brewers are losing Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun (for the first 50 games).

Anaheim Angels - BULLISH

For obvious reasons, the Angels will be a better team in 2012.  Those obvious reasons are the two deals they sneaked into at the Winter Meetings back in December fro Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson.  They grossly overpaid for Pujols and gave him at least four years too many, but they had to if they wanted to sign him at all.  This year, however, Pujols and Wilson are in the primes of their respective careers and they'll be major stars in their first season.  They'll both probably make it to the All-Star Game whether they deserve it or not.  They'll need a strong season from one of their other power hitters, like Vernon Wells, Torii Hunter or Mark Trumbo, if they want to make it deep in the playoffs, however, as otherwise teams will just pitch around Pujols.  If they get the production they need, watch out for this team. 

Big Mike Stanton has put the bleachers on notice, and
will again in the new Marlins Park

Miami Marlins - BULLISH

The Marlins have made the most noise this winter with signings of Jose Reyes, Heath Bell, and Mark Buehrle.  They came very close to signing Pujols but fell just short.  Just like the Angels' situation with Pujols, though, they'll need someone not named Hanley Ramirez to back up Mike Stanton in the power department (Ramirez will likely bat in front of Stanton).  Their fifth starter is Carlos Zambrano.  That tells you a lot about their deep rotation of Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, Ricky Nolasco and Anibal Sanchez.  They even managed to drop the weakest link from the group in Chris Volstad who went to Chicago in the Zambrano deal.  Of course we can't forget about new manager Ozzie Guillen.  Not everyone is a fan of his tactics, but they'll get the team motivated and in the headlines, which is two major goals of Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria.  If these fancy new investments tank and the Marlins go back to the mediocre ways, Loria will not be able to pay off the new stadium in expected fan revenue.  That would put the franchise in a financial hole that could set it back for a decade.  For the immediate future, however, I think they'll be players in the NL East.  

San Francisco Giants - BEARISH

I've criticized San Fran again and again for their lack of impact offensive players.  Last winter their only real action to improve the offensive problems they had was to bring back first baseman Aubrey Huff, who was coming off a fluke 2010 season, and 2010 postseason hero Cody Ross, a lifetime mediocre hitter turned major championship contributor.  Ross is now with the Boston Red Sox, and Huff is no longer a dependable power option that can be the team's potency leader.  This winter, so far they've signed backup catcher Eli Whiteside and added Melky Cabrera and Angel Pagan through trades.  These three are athletic, useful major league players, and yet none of them can be counted on for any kind of power.  The addition of Buster Posey will definitely help, but he'll need some reliable support.  Newly resigned Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner, Ryan Vogelsong and Barry Zito fill out their still-impressive rotation, but they'll continue to lose too many games on the road if they continually have to go through a tedious array of walks and singles for each offensive rally.  Not even Brian Wilson's beard can fix this one.

Sign at X please, first and last...wait, what's your name again?

Cleveland Indians - BEARISH

If all healthy, the Indians will could contend in 2012.  The problem is that an inconsistent rotation with a lack of consistency will plague them, even if the most injury-riddled team of the 21st Century miraculously stays injury-free for one year.  This rotation includes Ubaldo Jimenez, Cleveland's closest reincarnation of the "Wild Thing" for high strikeout and walk totals, The Pitcher Formerly Known As Fausto Carmona (err, Roberto Heredia), prototypically washed-up veteran Derek Lowe and probably two other guys not well known enough for me to make puns about (Justin Masterson and Josh Tomlin).    This part of the team is not a strength.  On offense, the Indians pulled off a major surprise move in resigning center fielder Grady Sizemore, who is three seasons removed from his last good or full one.  Sizemore returns to a club of injury-plagued Tribe members in Shin-Soo Choo and Travis Hafner, two major impact bats at some point.  Carlos Santana and Asdrubal Cabrera are among the best in the league at their positions, but the two of them don't come close to matching Detroit's duo of Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder.  It'll take a full team effort to overcome D-Town. 

Milwaukee Brewers - BEARISH

A superstar duo in Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun finally had great pitching behind them to lead Milwaukee deep into the playoffs.  If Milwaukee were a large market, that would probably signal the start of a dynasty.  Instead the Brew Crew will be without Braun until nearly June when he returns from his 50-game 'roid suspension and without Fielder for, presumably, the rest of his career.  Looking to make a reciprocative splash, GM Doug Melvin signed veteran third baseman Aramis Ramirez to a three-year deal.  Unfortunately, Ramirez is 33, on the down trend in his career, and isn't one of those mentor-type veterans.  Until Braun returns, the team will rely on Ramirez, Corey Hart, newly added but similarly aging shortstop Alex Gonzalez and Tony Plush in center to do most of the offensive work.  This doesn't nearly as fun as last year was for the Brewers.  We'll see if a horrific postseason affects #2 starter Shaun Marcum, and their bullpen uncertainties could go either way.  Overall, though, the question of the season will be whether or not the team can 'survive' the first 50 games without Braun.  I This is a solid team and I hope them the best (when not playing the Cubs), but I don't think they have another run in them.